The Italian financial cycle: 1861–2011

In this paper, we investigate the main features of the Italian financial cycle, extracted by means of a structural trend-cycle decomposition of the credit-to-GDP ratio, using annual observations from 1861 to 2011. In order to draw conclusions based on solid historical data, we provide a thorough reconstruction of the key balance sheet time series of Italian banks, considering all the main assets and liabilities over the last 150 years. We come to three main conclusions. First, while there was close correlation between loans and deposits (relative to GDP) until the mid-1970s, over the last 30 years, this link became more tenuous and the volume of loans has increased in relation to deposits. The banks covered this “funding gap” mainly by issuing new debt securities. Second, the Italian financial cycle has a much longer duration than traditional business cycles. Third, taking into account the deviation of the credit-to-GDP ratio from its trend, an acceleration of credit preceded or accompanied a banking crisis in 8 out of the 12 episodes listed by Reinhart and Rogoff (This time is different: eight centuries of financial folly. Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2009). A Logit regression confirms a positive association between the probability of a banking crisis and a previous acceleration of the credit-to-GDP gap. However, there were also periods—such as the early 1970s—in which the growth of the credit-to-GDP ratio was not followed by a banking crisis.     

Insider employee stock option trading and stock prices

The question of which factors determine corporate bonds pricing is investigated by analysing the spreads of eurobonds issued by major G-10 companies during the 1991–2001 period. Three main results emerge from the analysis. First, bond ratings appear as the most important determinant of yield spreads, with investors’ reliance on rating agencies judgments increasing over time. Second, the primary market efficiency and the expected secondary market liquidity are not relevant explanatory factors of spreads cross-sectional variability. Finally, rating agencies adopt a different, ‘through the cycle’, evaluation criteria of default risk with respect to the forward looking one adopted by bond investors.     

A Range-Based Finite Difference Approach to Valuing Options in Markov Switching Regimes*

Recognizing the inflexibility inherent in standard capital budgeting analysis, recent research has provided new insights using a real options framework. This paper uses the explicit finite difference approach to value real options. However, instead of assuming a constant return and volatility term, we assume that these variables are sensitive to changes in the economic environment. Accordingly, we adapt our approach to incorporate a Markov switching feature. Further, we recognize that some of the modeling assumptions can be violated in a practical application. Therefore, we recommend using range based estimates of the real option value, as opposed to a point estimate.     

The sources of use knowledge: Towards integrating the dynamics of technology use and design in the articulation of societal challenges

This paper reviews three strands of the innovation literature that have presented innovation as a distributed process that combines knowledge of designers and users: user innovations, Science and Technology Studies (STS), and domestication research. These literatures have explored different aspects of the micro-processes through which use and design knowledge are locally embedded. This paper pulls together insights from the literatures, and identifies an important gap: the connections between the local embedding of use and design knowledge, and the meso dynamics of industrial and technological change. The paper then develops a number of integrating concepts and propositions for a framework to study the co-evolution of use and design in innovation processes. It also demonstrates that this framework is most valuable in researching how societal challenges become articulated over time in processes of technological change and innovation.     

Profit rate dynamics, income distribution, structural and technical change in Denmark, Finland and Italy

Under less restrictive assumptions than in previous contributions, this paper highlights various patterns of profit rate dynamics that are common to the countries under scrutiny. Without a substantial re-distribution of income in favour of profits, the profit rate declines. When labour productivity is weak the profits/wages ratio declines leading to a decline in the profit rate, also due to capital deepening. Developments in the capital-labour ratio tend to increase the organic composition of capital while those in the ratio between the capital price deflator and the average wage tend to decrease it. Falls in the profit rate took place in countries with a weak technological change with episodes of Marxian bias. Employment shifted from low to high capital intensity sectors, from low to high organic composition industries and from low to high productivity sectors. Rising strength of labour and realization failures tend to have a greater role than rising organic composition in cyclical profit rate dynamics. Over the cycle, the first mechanism is also the first one to show up, while the others tend to follow it. Theoretical and policy implications are offered.     

When imperfect collusion is profitable

This paper studies cartel stability under the assumption that member firms can choose intermediate degrees of collusion as well as the joint-profit-maximizing solution in determining the quota to be produced by each firm. After showing that firms can increase the number of participants by decreasing the degree of collusion, I prove that individual members' profits are maximized when firms choose a (possibly low) degree of collusion such that all firms in the industry want to take part in the cartel. More precisely, if the number of firms in the industry is four or less, then all of them want to take part in the cartel even if the maximum degree of collusion is chosen (i.e., the monopoly output is produced); if the number of firms is greater than four, firms will still create an industry-wide cartel but they will produce a higher quantity than the monopoly output.     

Vacancy durations - a model for employer's search

This paper investigates a Dutch data set on vacancy durations and numbers of applicants to enquire employers' search strategies. A nonsequential search process assumes that most vacancies are filled from a pool of applicants, which is formed shortly after the posting of the vacancy. The time spent on recruiting applicants and the duration of the selection process are estimated with a proportional hazard model, via the arrival and attrition rates of applicants.     

Screening and training inter-cultural competencies: evaluating the impact of national culture on inter-cultural competencies

Inter-cultural competencies have become increasingly important for international personnel selection and training. The purpose of this article is to evaluate psychometric data regarding the controversy as to whether inter-cultural competencies are culture-free or culture-bound. In two empirical research projects in the USA and Germany national differences in inter-cultural competencies are evaluated. National culture is indicated as a significant independent variable for inter-cultural competencies in both studies. However, the impact of national culture on inter-cultural competencies seems to be minor in relation to the impact of gender culture as well as of organizational culture. Therefore, inter-cultural competencies are judged to be culture-general in the two nations. Conceptual conclusions as well as practical conclusions for IHRM are discussed, based on the results. Finally, the limitations of the studies are pointed out.     

Assessing the Determinants of High-Growth Manufacturing Firms in Italy

Few firms grow rapidly, but their contribution to employment growth is often impressive. The main purpose of this paper is to analyse both the external and internal factors that can affect the probability of being a high-growth firm (HGF) in Italy. We found that HGFs are, on average, young firms and are present in different industries, but the role of demand is important to understanding their performance at the sectoral level. Moreover, our findings show that financial constraints and profitability are not associated with the probability of being a HGF. HGFs, on average, are characterised by high productivity, but only when growth is measured in terms of sales. The most original results of this study concern the endogenous determinants of rapid growth, which have yet to be adequately examined in the literature. First, we found that the concentration of ownership is important for HGFs that experienced rapid growth in their sales. Second, the quality of human capital is a strong point for firms experiencing rapid employment growth.